Will Ceasefire Hold in Lebanon?



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The UN resolution is for a cessation of hostilities. But the ceasefire is unlikely to hold because the resolution didn’t redress the political problems in the Middle ‎East, the cause of frequent open hostilities, namely the Palestinian issue and permanent political borders between Israel and its neighbours, which are the core of these problems. It means nothing. Sooner or later trouble will re-emerge. ‎
Hezbollah and Israel are ideologically opposed. They will keep their mutual distrust. Hezbollah has military ‎and political power in Lebanon. The latest conflict has made it a new political power in the Muslim world, especially among the Muslim public.
The Lebanese army has little influence as it stood powerless in face of Israeli ‎attacks, as it didn’t have any power to disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah has acted on its own, using its TV Al Manar ‎to propagate its ideology as it has used its militia to carry armed attacks, disregarding Lebanese officials who are ‎opting for moderation. It finds its strength in allying with Syria and Iran for whom Israel is enemy number one in the ‎Middle East. This means the Lebanese government despite its agreement the on cease-fire resolution won’t ‎control it. ‎
Israel is set to destroy Hezbollah by whatever means. The days of fighting showed the level of ferocity on both ‎parts. Each making signal to the other that future fights will be the same or more tense.‎
The war attracted too much attention. It settled nothing for either side. It just caused mere deaths, injuries and destructions.
In view of the complexity of the problem, with its wide implications for the whole region, permanent peace will ‎remain hard to achieve in the near future unless moderation is reached by all parties directly or indirectly ‎implicated in this stalemate. In other words, all international resolutions will remain a piece of paper whose ‎wordings can, in itself, give justification for restarting hostilities.‎

See the video link by clicking on the following items: Mid-East Peace Plan and Mark Malloch-Brown on the web page (August 2006)

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