UN Security Council Sanctions against Iran, Will they work?

The United Nations Security Council has unanimously voted to impose sanctions against Iran over its failure to halt uranium enrichment. But will these sanctions work?

Iran will continue its defiance of international call for its failure to halt uranium enrichment. For the Iranian regime, its nuclear program is a matter of survival against what it sees threats from the USA and its allies. Iran still has oil weapon in case the situation worsens in the Middle East.

As long as it has trading partners like China and Russia and as long as it has started using the Euro for its international trade in replacement of the dollar, it will have ways to circumvent the sanctions.

The other advantage it has is that this is not a total economic embargo as it was with Iraq under Saddam. The revenues from recent oil boom will help it cope at least for a certain period.

Sanctions against Iran can succeed if they were tougher. The US still has Iran’s allies, mainly China and Russia, to persuade for global and not selective sanctions. Iran can still do with Chinese and Russian technology as the US has barred it from its key one since the start of the Islamic Revolution.

The Iranians have monetary reserves from their oil revenues to coax new trading partners in countries hostile to the USA like Venezuela.

The loss that the US can have in case these sanctions fail to make Iran halt its nuclear program is that Russia and China will become it rivals in the Middle East, creating a new balance of influence that can make US political calculations need total review.

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