Nuclear weapons, the-have and the-have-not

Israel and Iran used to be great friends until the overthrow of the Shah and the start of the Islamic Revolution in Iran. The religious leaders’ aim was to liberate Palestine. Since then the Iranian regime has been a nightmare for the West, particularly Israel and the USA.

The enmity between Israel and Iran is now about thirty years old that was translated in proxy wars in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 summer and through Iran’s direct support of Hamas. Such indirect wars look benign compared to the threat of a nuclear war between the two countries should Iran develop a nuclear bomb.

Israel has the experience of attacking suspected nuclear installations in the Middle East. It attacked Iraq’s nuclear complex in 1981. as it attacked a military installation in Syria . Israel in a sense feels empowered to attack suspected installation without fearing international reprisal. Israel can be emboldened to carry an air attack on Iran with the tacit blessing of the West, particularly, the USA. Such a strike would save the West the efforts of years of negotiations with Iran, coaxing it with economic and technological incentives and threatening it with further sanctions.

Iran and Israel have the right to exist as sovereign states, but it will be better if they find ways to coexist rather than seek to annihilate each other. It’s a fact that Israel is a nuclear power and it is unlikely that it will be forced to destroy its nuclear weapons, the only source it has to match the millions of soldiers and their equipments from the countries opposed to it in the Arab and the Muslim world should they one day form a coalition to attack it. The Iranian regime feels under threat of being weakened and attacked because of its open opposition to Western values. Currently it has oil as a weapon to make its presence felt in the region and the world. Getting nuclear is likely to change the political balance in the region in its favour. That’s the worst thing the West, especially the USA and Israel do fear it can, happen.

The only thing that can wipe out all fears on both sides is to find peaceful solutions to the problems currently facing the Middle East, through which Israel will be recognised by all the states in the region with which it can have peace agreements. Without a peace deal with Iran, Syria and Lebanon, among other things, the conflict will continue and the need to acquire sophisticated weapons, including nuclear ones, will continue on the part of Iran and any other country in the region vehemently opposed to Israel.

2 Comments

  1. Looney said,

    July 3, 2008 at 2:40 pm

    It seems to me that Iran is following a very old pattern here: When you have an unpopular government, it is better to whip up emotions of your people against a foreign enemy to keep them from focusing on their current problems. China has been very good on doing this against Taiwan and even Japan. North Korea was doing it against South Korea. This is something that makes it especially dangerous.

  2. Abdelilah Boukili said,

    July 3, 2008 at 2:49 pm

    Thanks Looney for your comment,
    i agree with you that many governments faced with internal problems try to avert the attention of its discontented people to a “foreign enemy”, which it blames for all its problems.
    In the Middle East, the Israel card has been used as a pretext for unpopular internal policies


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